Planning for Uncertainty: Why Scenario Planning Matters for Household Economic Security

Let’s face it — the world doesn’t follow a script. 

If you’re working in the public sector, you already know this.

One minute we’re responding to a pandemic, the next we’re dealing with AI reshaping jobs, or another record-breaking climate disaster. 

In a world this unpredictable, how can we make sure that everyday people — especially low- and middle-income families — have a stable shot at economic security?

This is where scenario planning and forecasting come in. 

These aren’t just tools for national defense or Fortune 500s. They’re incredibly useful for domestic policy, especially when we’re thinking about what it takes for a household to stay afloat, build wealth, or weather a shock.

What are scenario planning and forecasting?

Scenario planning is about preparing for a range of plausible futures. We consider what forces are at play that may result in more likely or less likely realities. We might consider questions like, "What if AI accelerates faster than we thought? What might be the implications for the automation of service and manufacturing jobs in that scenario?"

Forecasting helps us project near-term future trends based on what we already know. We take into consideration present and historic data to predict what is likely to occur. When we forecast, we consider questions like, "What is the likelihood that Medicaid cuts might lead to healthcare-related job losses this year?"

Where are scenario planning and forecasting being used? 

When it comes to applying scenario planning and forecasting to domestic policy, they are most found in the following domains:

• Extreme Weather: Cities use scenarios to plan for flooding, heatwaves, and energy needs.
• Public health: The Center for Disease Control (CDC) and county health departments use disease modeling to forecast and plan for outbreaks.
• Economic policy: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) models future deficits, growth, and unemployment.

But when it comes to tracking household-level wellbeing, we often default to backward-looking metrics — such as last year’s poverty rate and average household debt. Helpful, but not enough.

Where are the opportunities for policy innovation?

Scenario planning is still rare when it comes to understanding the future realities of low- and middle-income families. It’s not often baked into how we:

• Assess affordability of housing, food, or healthcare over time
• Design income supports like tax credits or unemployment insurance
• Anticipate how tech will change access to stable, well-paying jobs

That’s a missed opportunity. With tools like these, we could better anticipate when families are likely to be stretched thin — and respond earlier, smarter, and in a more targeted fashion.

Why It Matters for Household Economic Security

Imagine your state or local government team is trying to help families in your community stay secure in 2035. You could build a few future scenarios like:

• Scenario 1: AI displaces many service jobs, but your government didn’t expand training or safety nets. Income gaps widen.
• Scenario 2: Your government invests in retraining and child care services. Wages rise modestly — more households stay stable.
• Scenario 3: Climate events drive up housing and insurance costs, and families on the edge can’t recover from the financial shock.

By thinking through these futures now, you can design better policies today. That means a better use of tax dollars AND stronger communities as a result.

Getting Started

If you're in a local or state agency, here a few ways to integrate this thinking:

• Partner with researchers or local universities on scenario development
• Include a wide range of community voices to ensure grounded, lived-experience perspectives
• Start small — pick one policy area (housing, childcare, jobs) and build a few “what if” futures

This isn’t about trying to predict everything. It’s about being more intentional and prepared — so we can shape a future where more households don’t just survive, but thrive.

Interested in building scenarios for the future of your community? Reach out — we’d love to think it through with you.