We Invited 20 Domestic Policy Experts to Forecast the Future of Household Economic Security for Americans.

Here’s What They Came Up With.

What happens when families are forced to choose between groceries, rent, and child care?

What does the future look like for low-income and middle-income households over the next four years, given current federal policy changes and other economic drivers?

Civic Wisdom, a bold new public sector agency, convened a group of domestic policy thought leaders to imagine what’s next.

Our goal for this first event, “The Future of Household Economic Security in America,” was simple but urgent:

• reflect on current federal policy impacts on low-income and middle-income families,
• explore the use of scenario-planning and forecasting for domestic policymaking,
• and map out the forces that could shape life for families over the next four years.

This post offers a window into what emerged: four vivid future scenarios that surfaced from our collective foresight exercises.

We’ll walk you through the scenarios, share which were seen as most and least likely by participants, and highlight possible directions for tracking our collective future.

The Backdrop

Behind every paycheck-to-paycheck household is a deeper story of systemic strain, and the numbers are telling.

An Unraveling Safety Net

At a time when families need more support, many of the programs designed to protect them are under threat. The House of Representatives recently passed a budget resolution that would slash trillions of dollars over the next decade from critical programs like:

• Medicaid
• Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
• Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

These aren’t abstract policy moves—they have real consequences. Families who rely on these lifelines may soon find themselves without the support they need to put food on the table, pay rent, or cover a doctor’s visit.

To better understand what constitutes true economic security for households, we referenced the Minimal Quality of Life (MQL) Framework, which identifies seven essential categories—housing, health care, food, transportation, childcare, education, and technology access.

This framework reminds us that economic security is not about a single paycheck or program—it’s a complex, interconnected web of basic needs. When even one area fails, families fall behind. In the current policy environment, multiple components are at risk simultaneously.

Cracks in Core Institutions

Simultaneously, federal workforce cuts are threatening the stability of agencies that underpin public well-being. Reductions at the Social Security Administration (SSA), Veterans Affairs (VA), Administration for Children and Families (ACF/Head Start), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Administration for Community Living Health are already undermining the nation’s medical infrastructure, food safety systems, and local service networks—from Meals on Wheels to infection surveillance.

These cuts don’t just impact federal budgets—they trickle down to state and local governments, nonprofits, and everyday families. They threaten both community resilience and economic stability, raising critical questions:

• How will local governments and families fare in the wake of these cuts?
• What ripple effects will hit small businesses, public health, and local tax bases?
• What scenarios must we prepare for—and who will step up?

Imagining the Future: Four Diverging Scenarios

​To make sense of today’s uncertainty, we facilitated participants in a series of engaging (and sometimes quite dark!) conversations to look ahead and imagine four possible paths for household economic security in America.

Some of our facilitators in action

Each scenario reflected different structural forces and value assumptions, offering a multidimensional view of what could lie ahead.

Worst Case – Failed State

Over the next four years, in a failed state scenario, multiple converging crises—economic, environmental, and political—overwhelm the capacity of institutions to function, leading to widespread systemic collapse and deep household insecurity.

Failed State - Federal level change:

Federal governance deteriorates amid extreme polarization and disinformation. Regressive tax cuts are extended while deep cuts to federal agencies, housing assistance, and social programs are enacted. Trade wars escalate, leading to widespread tariffs. Fiscal mismanagement results in the U.S. dollar losing reserve currency status. AI displacement occurs without labor transition policies.

Failed State - National economic impacts:

Unemployment surpasses 20%. Massive wealth consolidation accelerates as corporations dominate weakened regulatory systems. Inflation for essentials—healthcare, housing, food—far outpaces wage growth. Supply chain disruptions become chronic, and public trust in financial markets collapses.

Failed State - How families are impacted:

Disposable incomes plunge. Millions lose health insurance and stable housing. Food insecurity skyrockets. Entire regions experience chronic shortages of basic goods and services.

Failed State - State and civil society response:

State capacity collapses in many areas. Public services erode under budget shortfalls and staffing crises. Mutual aid efforts expand but are rapidly overwhelmed. Extremist threats and militia movements grow as legitimacy shifts away from democratic institutions.

Best Case – New Dawn

Over the next four years, in a best-case scenario, a strong national electoral realignment drives bold and coordinated public investment, strengthening the foundations of economic security and democratic resilience for all households.

New Dawn - Federal level change:

Sweeping federal reforms pass with broad support: progressive wealth taxes, tuition-free childcare and community college, major investments in affordable housing, expansion of Medicare into a universal system, and a rapid transition to renewable energy. Campaign finance reform, including the repeal of Citizens United, revitalizes democracy.

New Dawn - National economic impacts:

Healthcare spending decreases as outcomes improve. Wages rise through strengthened labor protections and full employment. The transition to clean energy boosts domestic industry and slashes climate disaster costs. Entrepreneurship and small business ownership expand. Regional economic inequality shrinks.

New Dawn - How families are impacted:

Families see higher disposable incomes and stronger safety nets. Access to health care, education, and housing is secured. Child development improves, and life expectancy rises. Homeownership becomes accessible to new generations. Intergenerational wealth transfer increases.

New Dawn - State and civil society response:

Federal, state, and local governments align through robust partnerships. Trust in public institutions rebounds. Civil society thrives, with a flourishing ecosystem of co-ops, mutual aid networks, and participatory democratic reforms reinforcing social cohesion.

Slightly Worse Case – Thin Ice

Over the next four years, in a slightly worse scenario, federal gridlock and economic stagnation prevent meaningful policy responses to rising costs and instability. The erosion of support systems accelerates, though institutions remain intact.

Thin Ice- Federal level change:

Continued political polarization blocks major reforms. Marginal tax adjustments favor higher earners, inflation reduction policies prioritize markets over households. Cuts to housing subsidies and nutritional assistance take effect, while AI-driven job displacement accelerates without new labor protections.

Thin Ice - National economic impacts:

Persistent inflation in essential goods, stagnant wages, real GDP growth under 1% annually. Underemployment rises. Public debt pressures reduce infrastructure investment. Financial volatility increases.

How families are impacted:

Rising childcare, healthcare, and housing costs squeeze household budgets. Student debt burdens remain high. Access to credit tightens. Savings erode. Many families rely more on gig work or multiple jobs to stay afloat.

Thin Ice - State and civil society response:

State responses are fragmented; wealthier states bolster safety nets while poorer states cut back. Nonprofits expand stopgap aid, but burnout rises. Civil unrest grows in underinvested regions.

Slightly Better Case – Patchwork Progress

Over the next four years, in a slightly better scenario, incremental federal reforms and targeted investments improve conditions for many households, though inequality and systemic gaps persist.

Patchwork Progress - Federal level change:

Bipartisan support emerges for modest expansions in childcare subsidies, paid family leave, and broadband infrastructure. Public option introduced but limited in scope. Tax credits are extended for working families. Debt forgiveness is implemented for select groups (e.g., public service workers).

Patchwork Progress - National economic impacts:

Moderate job growth, slight increase in real wages. Healthcare coverage expands modestly. Consumer confidence stabilizes. Inflation moderates for key goods, but housing remains unaffordable in urban areas.

Patchwork Progress - How families are impacted:

Lower-income families gain limited relief through expanded tax credits and social programs. Some see improved access to healthcare and education. Others still face high costs or unstable work.

Patchwork Progress - State and civil society response:

States pilot successful policies to expand college and workforce education, affordable housing, and public transit. Cross-sector collaborations increase. Civil society adapts with innovation in community finance and cooperative models.

Expert Consensus?

After hours of dialogue, the consensus among the 20 domestic policy experts in the room was clear:

“Thin Ice”—or the "slightly worse scenario" - was viewed as the most immediate and likely scenario without strategic, coordinated intervention.

This slightly worse-case scenarios weren’t marked by explosive collapse but by a quiet unraveling:

• Underfunded public education
• Inaccessible healthcare
• Increasing privatization of essential services
• AI and workforce shifts that outpace public oversight
• A generation losing faith in institutions and upward mobility

At the same time, participants noted that patchwork progress—local innovation, civic organizing, and policy pockets of progress—could emerge in response. But without systemic change at the federal level, such resilience may remain uneven and unsustainable.

Key Takeaways & Caveats

• These are not predictions—they are plausible futures. The purpose of scenario planning is to stretch thinking, not to claim certainty.
• Drivers matter. Federal funding decisions, political leadership, AI development trajectories, natural disasters, and social trust will all shift the likelihood of different futures.
• Time is a factor. Without intervention, the slightly worse scenarios could deepen into the worst-case ones over the next 5–10 years. But proactive action today can still steer us toward better-case futures.

The core insight? Erosion isn’t inevitable—but it is creeping. And that makes now the critical moment for public servants, civic actors, and community leaders to choose a new path forward.

Next Steps

Monitoring and Data Tracking

Scenario planning must be paired with ongoing data tracking to remain grounded and adaptive.

Key indicators to monitor include:

• Monthly unemployment and wage reports
• State and federal budget allocations—especially to Medicaid, SNAP, TANF, and education
• Proposed and passed legislation related to housing, healthcare, AI regulation, and childcare
• Local indicators such as food bank demand, public transit usage, high school job placement, and digital divide metrics

These data points serve as early signals, showing us whether we’re drifting toward erosion or inching toward a more economically stable future.

Future Events & Collaboration

This is just the beginning. Civic Wisdom will continue to convene workshops, foresight salons, and scenario-planning labs in partnership with communities and state and local governments across the country.